Trump has raised the bar on defence spending - the UK must meet it early, writes Jeremy Hunt

24 June 2025, 13:00 | Updated: 24 June 2025, 15:00

By Jeremy Hunt

NATO countries are currently gathering in The Hague for this year’s summit. With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the alliance faces a potential moment of peril. But it has turned into an opportunity to show the world that NATO means business. NATO countries have already agreed on a new 5% of GDP target, consisting of both core defence spending and security-related infrastructure investment. As Europe’s pre-eminent military power, I hope the UK shows leadership by reaching the new 5% target by the end of the decade instead of the agreed 2035.

In the months leading to the NATO summit, there was considerable tension. It was no secret that Trump and European NATO countries didn’t always see eye to eye: Trump has long believed that Europe does not contribute enough to its own defence. The current US administration is more interested in the South China Sea and the Middle East and thinks that European security should be paid for by Europeans. In 2018, I was at the table when Trump nearly pulled the US out of NATO completely – thankfully, his advisers talked him out of it.

But Trump has a point. At the time, the US accounted for two thirds of total NATO defence expenditure. Shockingly, in 2018, only six member states – including the US and the UK – were spending at or above 2% of their GDP on defence. I asked my own officials what proportion of European defence was paid for by American taxpayers. The eventual estimate they gave me was between a third and a half.

Some progress had been made since 2014: that was when David Cameron helped convince NATO countries to adopt the target of 2% of GDP on defence following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ISIS’s rapid rise in the Middle East. From then on, defence spending in NATO stopped trending downwards and started rising again. But with Europe still reeling from its own economic crises, defence spending just has not been a priority for many countries – and it shows.

Fast forward to 2025: when Trump returned to office, he was still unconvinced. This was despite dramatic budget increases in reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as European NATO countries scrambled to support Ukraine and reinforce their militaries. Again, Trump is not wrong in his assessment. Only spending 2% of GDP – or even 2.5% – on defence is simply not going to be enough to keep Europe – or Ukraine – safe as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte eloquently argues.

And the patience of an unpredictable President is wearing thin. Trump wants NATO countries to spend 5% on defence and security. And it looks like he will get his way.

Earlier this month NATO defence ministers agreed to a new target: 3.5% of GDP on core defence spending and 1.5% “on defence and security-related investment, including in infrastructure and resilience”. However, the new target still needs to be approved at this week’s summit – Spain’s refusal to commit has the potential to derail the whole thing. But on Sunday, it was reported that a summit statement had been agreed. This means that the 5% target is becoming a reality.

In many ways, this is fantastic news. However, there is one glaring problem: the timeline. Countries are reportedly not expected to meet this new target until 2035. Security threats will not wait around for us to be ready. It should be by the end of this decade.

Global security is a topic I discuss at length in my new book Can We Be Great Again?. I highlight the fact that the UK is one of the few countries – along with the US – that is willing to project force in defence of democratic values. If we won’t lead the way and show it is possible to reach the target early, who else will? I was certainly not impressed to read that the UK had reportedly been dragging its heels on the decision to back the new target earlier this month. We should be leading the way, Sir Keir!

The UK must make plans for 5% by 2030. The government has just announced it expects to reach 4.1% by 2027, so 5% by 2030 is not impossible. I understand that this will require difficult choices at home, but we must be bold. In the grand scheme of things, 5% is not a big ask. We currently spend 11% of our GDP on welfare (that includes pensions). But as I have said before, we can indeed pay for it. However we will need to reduce working-age benefits to 2019 levels by the end of 2029 – this alone could save up to £49bn in real terms. It won’t be easy but it must be done.

Peace is secured through strength. Whilst 5% may seem like a steep increase to some, the alternative could be much worse should the US decide to call it quits. Putin will certainly be disappointed with the outcome of this year’s NATO summit – let’s not snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

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Jeremy Hunt is MP for Godalming and Ash.

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