Narrow Conservative majority predicted in final general election poll

10 December 2019, 22:54

YouGov has conducted its final poll before the election on Thursday
YouGov has conducted its final poll before the election on Thursday. Picture: PA

By Sylvia DeLuca

Boris Johnson is set for a 28 seat majority, YouGov's highly anticipated final MRP model before the general election shows.

Shortly before voting day on Thursday, YouGov's new poll suggests that a small Conservative majority of 43% is likely.

But the outcome suggests the race has tightened significantly in the last fortnight, and based on the model, Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said: "We cannot rule out a hung parliament.”

The poll puts the Conservatives on course to win 339 seats, up 21 seats compared to the last general election in 2017.

Labour is down 31 to 231 seats, the SNP up six to 41 seats, and the Liberal Democrats up three to 15 seats.

The poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311, suggesting that Boris Johnson cannot be sure of securing a Commons majority in Thursday’s election.

But the previous YouGov MRP poll, published on Nov. 27, predicted the Conservatives were on court to win a comfortable majority of 68 seats in parliament.

What happens if there is a hung Parliament?

The MRP poll predicts a 43% majority for the Conservatives
The MRP poll predicts a 43% majority for the Conservatives. Picture: YouGov

YouGov says: "Were the election held tomorrow, the Tories would win 359 seats (42 more than they took in 2017) and 43% of the vote (around the same as last time). In terms of seats won, this would be the Conservatives’ best performance since 1987.

"Meanwhile, Labour are set to lose 31 seats – falling from 262 in 2017 to 231 – and take 34% of the vote (a six percentage point decrease). In terms of seats won this would be the party’s worst performance since 1983."

However, YouGov stresses that the margin of error means experts cannot rule out a hung parliament.

The poll predicts that the Tories could still take Bishop Auckland, Dudley North, Bury South; Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Scunthorpe, Don Valley and North Norfolk.

Labour could hold Canterbury and Kensington and take Chipping Barnett and Putney; Lib Dems could take Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and South Cambridgeshire, according to YouGov.

What happens if Boris Johnson loses his seat?

YouGov MRP election model
YouGov MRP election model. Picture: YouGov

The MRP poll shows that the SNP is set to make gains in Scotland to the detriment of Labour and the Conservatives.

It predicts little change for the Lib Dems that are set to hold all four of the seats they took in 2017.

The poll also shows that Labour will struggle to hold seats in north Wales, but will have more success in south Wales, where the party is on course to keep all its seats.

Chris Curtis, YouGov’s Political Research Manager, said: "The margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament.

"As things currently stand there are 85 seats with a margin of error of 5% or less.”

For the last seven days, YouGov has interviewed approximately 100,000 panellists about their voting intentions in the 2019 General Election to form its MRP election model.

What is tactical voting and is it legal?