With Reform knocking on the door of local politics, the Tories look set for a bloodbath, writes LBC's Natasha Clark

1 May 2025, 22:00

By Natasha Clark

@NatashaC

Local election campaign? What local election campaign?

Less than one year out from the general election, and the appetite for today’s locals might appear to be non-existent on the surface.

But look a little deeper and there’s plenty to sink our teeth into tonight in the wonderful world of Westminster politics.

Ben Kentish and I will kick off the night with a special election show from 10pm, taking you through the first few results and dissecting the state of play for all the main parties.

What can we expect?

Where does Reform go now?

Reform’s breakthrough into local politics is likely to be the story of the night, and the party are expected to do well.

These set of elections were last fought in 2021 on the back of Boris Johnson’s vaccine bounce – meaning it’ll be ripe for the picking where those votes go instead.

Reform are expected to pick up more seats locally than ever before, breaking through on councils and Mayoral races for the first time.

Insiders say it’s feeling “good on the doors, with so many races tight” but say that nicking Runcorn is going to be like taking Hackney South.

“With a gun to my head, I couldn’t tell you – but we’re flooding the ground with people,” they say.“Nigel’s the only person on the field cutting through”.

Many pollsters think, however, that Reform is reaching its ceiling of support in the polls, even if it’s not yet got the Westminster breakthrough.

That being said, the party are raking in more money, winning seats, and ripping up the political consensus.

They have an eye on next year’s Welsh and Scottish elections to really reach the heights of what they can achieve, and the momentum shows no signs of stopping.

The first real test for Kemi Badenoch

“It’ll be a bloodbath, and I’m excited for it to be over,” one Tory summed it up to me.

The gambling commission charging several Tories with bribery is coming up on the doors, alongside immigration, which is driving voters away.

But the silver lining for many, is that after talking the talk for so long, Nigel Farage’s outlook will soon have to walk the walk, in office.

They’ll be held to account on policy and delivery in local government – giving voters a flavour of what they might look like in government for real.

Many Tories hope that turns out to be a disaster, and the Reform crown will then come crumbling down.

That hope could be misguided, but it won’t stop a bad night for the Tories this evening.

Even Tories know it’ll be difficult – with some predicting they’ll lose up to 80 per cent of their seats – around 700 of them, with Reform on track to pick up 500 of those.

The Tory leader, just a few months into office, will face a rough ride on Friday as she battles to hold onto her job in the face of grumbling MPs.

Is this the change Labour voters wanted, and are they still behind Sir Keir Starmer?

Will Labour’s fragile and shallow 2024 coalition of voters stick together tonight?“Locals are always a challenge for the incumbents, and that’s us now,” one Labour source says.

LBC’s polling has showed the shine has come off Sir Keir’s leadership and government far quicker than people expected.

After a rocky first few months featuring a tricky budget, and No10 infighting, the government’s had a far calmer start to this year.

But are there enough core voters who still back the Government’s direction of travel?Insiders say the Runcorn byelection is looking tight – but possible they may still hold it.

One thinks there’s just a few hundred votes in it.

It’s noticed by many that Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t been to campaign himself – is this because they fear they’ll lose it, or that the PM isn’t quite as popular as Westminster thinks he is, among voters in the North of England?

Reform is in for a mammoth battle to overturn their 15,000 majority in true red heartlands.

Usually, it would be an easy feat to boot out the party, of which an MP is alleged to have hit a constituent in the face after a night out.

But if they do, it would be another sign that Nigel Farage is just as much of a threat to Labour, as the Tories.

We’re in a four-party system now…

Tonight we might see mayoralties of every colour hit the mainstream.Labour currently holds most of the Metro Mayor seats – with the exception of Teesside’s Ben Houchen – but many people expect a smattering of smaller parties to pick them up.

The Greens could take the West of England, and Reform’s Andrea Jenkyns is picking up support in Lincolnshire.

Just take a look at the latest opinion polls, with several parties neck and neck and just a few percentage points in it.

Sir Ed Davey’s PMQs moments and anti-Trump rhetoric have seen the Libs gather some support from Labour too.

With a buzz around Labour dropping, and the Lib Dems and Greens picking up disaffected Left voters, and few people ready to forgive the Tories yet, it’s all to play for.