Lib Dems may get seats "nobody expects" on election night, pollster chief tells Eddie Mair
18 November 2019, 20:06 | Updated: 18 November 2019, 20:08
YouGov chief Peter Kellner reveals the latest voting predictions after analysing another week in politics.
"This has been a good week for Boris Johnson largely because when we talked this time last week, the Brexit Party hadn't yet announced what they were going to do," said Peter Kellner, "they are pulling out of the seats the Conservatives are defending."
He said this will obviously help Conservatives in regional seats although he's "not sure many of them will have fallen anyway."
Another consequence is that the Brexit Party candidates are giving a "muddled message" in the Labour-held constituencies that they are challenging.
"The polls are beginning to show that even in the places they are standing, they're now slipping back, and that's good news for the Conservatives."
He continued: "What I think is happening in the strong Remain parts of London, the Liberal Democrats seem to be doing incredibly well in seats like that, and Labour's not doing very well.
"It may be that Liberal Democrats pick up a number of seats that nobody's really expecting on election night."
Eddie asked whether the growing Conservative lead means it's all over.
Peter said one might think that but two years ago the Tories were even further ahead in the polls yet when they released a "car crash of a manifesto, Theresa May's ratings died, Jeremy Corbyn's ratings rose."
He also reflected that when he was younger, it was more obvious which constituencies would vote Labour and Conservative, and this general election is much more unpredictable.