Political analyst Professor Allan Lichtman explains why Trump will lose the US election

14 September 2020, 21:37

By Fiona Jones

Political analyst and historian Professor Allan Lichtman explains to Iain Dale why he believes President Trump will lose the November election.

Today marks 50 days to go until the US Election, with Democrat Joe Biden holding a steady lead in the polls so far.

Professor Allan Lichtman is not only an historian but has correctly predicted the winner of each presidential race since 1984 by using a system he outlined in his book, The Keys to the White House.

Professor Lichtman predicted, "Donald Trump will become the first sitting President since Bill Clinton defeated George H W Bush in 1992 to lose a re-election bid."

He told Iain his system looks at the "big picture" such as third parties, mid-term election results, long and short term economy, scandal, social unrest and policy change.

Iain pointed out that the President is not only a different sort of candidate to others before, he is different to 2016 Trump - to which Professor Lichtman pointed out that his system looks at the party as a whole instead of individual characters.

He reflected about Donald Trump, "He was in pretty good shape going into 2020 and then, as you point out, America was hit with the pandemic, the cries for social and racial justice, and Donald Trump reverted to his 2016 playbook where he was the challenger. But you can't talk your way out of it when it's your record."

Referring to his system of keys, Professor Lichtman said that the President has dropped from four keys down to seven keys down, "losing the short term economy key, the long term economy key and the social unrest key in just a matter of a few months."

"Never has any party in the White House suffered such a sudden and dramatic reversal of fortune in such a short period of time," he told Iain.

He continued that it would be extremely difficult for President Trump's fortune to change in time for the election as "the economy doesn't change on a dime."

You can watch the full interview above.