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General Election 2019: What happens next after the three possible results?
11 December 2019, 13:24 | Updated: 11 December 2019, 15:13
There are three possibilities for the result of the general election tomorrow. James O'Brien and Theo Usherwood look at what will happen after each one.
Realistically, only three things can happen after Thursday's vote:
1) A Conservative majority
2) No overall majority
3) A Labour majority
Theo Usherwood looks at what would happen in each scenario:
What will happen if there is a Conservative majority?
Boris Johnson only needs a majority of one or two to form a government. But if he does get a majority of one or two, his Premiership is likely to come unstuck fairly early on in his tenure because he will not be able to do anything of significance that would upset even the smallest marginal group within his party.
Everything that he wants to do over the next four and a half years will have to have the consensus of his party. That will spell real trouble on 30th June when the UK has to tell the EU if we want to extend the transition period and real trouble at the end of that transition period unless he can sign up a good trade deal with the EU that satisfies the ERG.
I'd say he needs a majority of 40-50 and then the quote of Get Brexit Done has a chance of becoming reality and they can close the Pandora's Box on Brexit.
What will happen if there is a hung parliament?
If there's no overall majority, the largest party gets a crack at forming a parliament.
If it's Boris Johnson, there's no one he can turn to at the moment. The DUP don't believe him about the border in the Irish Sea. Professor John Curtice, who knows everything about elections, said that Boris Johnson will need an overall majority as he won't be able to form a majority.
So what we'd end up with is Boris Johnson going to the Palace saying he could form a majority in the House of Commons, then go back to the House of Commons and lose a vote of confidence.
Then Jeremy Corbyn gets to have a go. If they can put together a rainbow coalition or Confidence and Supply agreement with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP then they will get the chance to form a government.
But those conditions may include a second Scottish independence referendum or even for Jeremy Corbyn to stand down.
A new leader of the Labour Party would then go to the Palace to say they could form a government. If they can, then the likelihood is they would push through a vote for a Second referendum.
What happens if Labour have most seats in a hung parliament?
Jeremy Corbyn would get the first opportunity to form a government. But the same scenario as above may apply.
He could possibly have the backing of the Lib Dems or the SNP, but what conditions will the other parties put on their support?