Hurricane risk rises amid Trump research cuts, raising response fears
22 May 2025, 20:00
The Atlantic is forecast to see more hurricane than usual, as Trump’s cuts to research have sparked fears about the ability to track and prepare for the weather events.
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The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busier than usual, US science agency NOAA has warned, amid fears those affected will be less prepared due to recent cuts to American research by President Donald Trump.
Between six and 10 hurricanes are forecast for the Atlantic between June and November, compared with the typical seven.
Warmer sea temperatures – made more likely by climate change – and generally favourable atmospheric conditions, are behind the forecast.
Read more: Tornado could batter parts of England, Met Office warns
Several scientists reported that widespread firings by Mr Trump's administration of government researchers could endanger efforts to monitor hurricanes and predict where they might hit.
Since the beginning of Mr Trump's second term, hundreds of NOAA staff have been laid off, with the aim of cutting US government spending and costs to the taxpayer.
This has left the National Weather Service – NOAA's weather forecasting and hazard-warning branch – critically understaffed ahead of the hurricane season, several scientists have reported.
The office in Houston for example – Texas is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes – is effectively without its top three management positions.
Today's 2025 Atlantic season outlook covers the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, called the Gulf of America by the Trump administration.
In total NOAA expects between 13 and 19 named tropical storms. Of these, between six and 10 could become hurricanes, including three to five major ones.
Last year saw 18 tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes of which five were major hurricanes. The long-term average of named tropical storms is 14, of which seven are usually hurricanes, with three major ones among them.
A warmer planet is thought to increase the chances of storms reaching the highest wind speeds and bringing heavier rainfall, as well as a higher likelihood of coastal flooding.
The average forecast of storms is expected to be higher this year due to sea surface temperatures being above average, and because the natural weather pattern known as El Niño – which makes it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to develop – is not expected this year,
