Conservatives to get narrow majority, final election poll predicts

11 December 2019, 07:43

Boris Johnson in the final days of campaigning
Boris Johnson in the final days of campaigning. Picture: PA

Boris Johnson's predicted majority has halved in the last two weeks, according to a new general election poll.

YouGov's MRP poll, one of the few polls to correctly predict a hung parliament in 2017, suggested that a small Conservative majority of 43% is likely.

The poll puts the Conservatives on course to win 339 seats, up 21 seats compared to the last general election in 2017.

Labour is down 31 to 231 seats, the SNP up six to 41 seats, and the Liberal Democrats up three to 15 seats.

But the outcome suggests the race has tightened significantly in the last fortnight with YouGov saying "we cannot rule out a hung parliament.”

The poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311, suggesting that Boris Johnson cannot be sure of securing a Commons majority in Thursday’s election.

But the previous YouGov MRP poll, published on Nov. 27, predicted the Conservatives were on court to win a comfortable majority of 68 seats in parliament.

The MRP data from YouGov
The MRP data from YouGov. Picture: YouGov

YouGov says: "Were the election held tomorrow, the Tories would win 359 seats (42 more than they took in 2017) and 43% of the vote (around the same as last time). In terms of seats won, this would be the Conservatives’ best performance since 1987.

"Meanwhile, Labour are set to lose 31 seats – falling from 262 in 2017 to 231 – and take 34% of the vote (a six percentage point decrease). In terms of seats won this would be the party’s worst performance since 1983."

However YouGov stresses that the margin of error means experts cannot rule out a hung parliament.

The poll predicts that the Tories could still take Bishop Auckland, Dudley North, Bury South; Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Scunthorpe, Don Valley and North Norfolk.

Labour could hold Canterbury and Kensington and take Chipping Barnett and Putney; Lib Dems could take Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and South Cambridgeshire, according to YouGov.

The MRP poll shows that the SNP are set to make gains in Scotland to the detriment of Labour and the Conservatives.

It predicts little change for the Lib Dems that are set to hold all four of the seats they took in 2017.

The poll also shows that Labour will struggle to hold seats in north Wales, but will should have more success in south Wales, where the party is on course to keep all its seats.

Chris Curtis, YouGov’s Political Research Manager, said: "The margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament.

"As things currently stand there are 85 seats with a margin of error of 5% or less.”

For the last seven days YouGov has interviewed approximately 100,000 panellists about their voting intentions in the 2019 General Election to form its MRP election model.