Three in five people think the UK is already in recession – poll

More than half of the public thinks the UK is currently in a recession, a poll has found.

Despite figures showing a limited amount of economic growth at the beginning of the year, some 61% of people told pollster Ipsos they thought the UK was in recession.

The poll suggests widespread economic pessimism amid rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation, with two-thirds of people saying they expect both inflation and interest rates to increase in the next six months.

The figures are a slight improvement on those found by a similar poll in May, when 81% of people said they expected the cost of food would increase, but they continue to suggest significant negativity about the state of the economy.

Expectations for 2024 are similarly low. Some 71% of people told Ipsos they expected the cost of their weekly food shop to increase next year, while 66% said they thought utility bills would rise.

The survey of 1,000 British adults was carried out between June 16 and 17 before this week’s news that inflation remained unchanged at 8.7% and ahead of Thursday’s expected increase in interest rates.

Even so, 42% of people said they expected their mortgage or rent payments to increase in 2024.

Expectations of further interest rate hikes have led to warnings that 1.4 million people face losing a fifth of their disposable income to increased mortgage payments and the average two-year fixed mortgage rate has surpassed 6%.

Looking at the economy as a whole, 38% of people said they expected things to get worse in 2024 while only 23% thought things would improve. Some 61% said they expected the economy to see a recession next year.

Overall, 78% of people described the state of the British economy as “poor”.