James O'Brien 10am - 1pm
YouGov Political Researcher Suggests Tories Could Win October General Election
4 August 2019, 13:05
YouGov's political research manager told LBC an October general election would be a "gamble" for the Conservatives that could pay off as they are the "strong favourites to win".
Christopher Curtis described the recent by-election in Brecon was "easy pickings" for the Liberal Democrats, but added it would be interesting to see whether the new MP would survive an early general election.
Speaking to Andrew Pierce, Mr Curtis said: "What will be interesting to see is if we are heading to an October general election, which I think increasingly is the consensus, then the new MP for Brecon could be one of the shortest serving MPs that we've ever had."
Lib Dem Jane Dodds won the mid-Wales seat after a by-election was triggered by Conservative MP Chris Davies following his conviction for submitting false expenses.
The Tory loss meant Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered a blow to his Commons majority - which was reduced to just one.
Mr Curtis added that current opinion polls are backing a suggestion that even if Boris Johnson is brought down, the Tories would still win with 'a large majority'.
"It's definitely a gamble, particularly after last time round when the Conservatives had a very large lead in the polls and then that evaporated over the course of that campaign," he said.
"It's definitely a gamble, but as things currently stand, even if the government is brought down in a no-confidence vote they're going into an election campaign as the strong favourites to win."