Emmanuel Macron is playing Russian roulette with the French Republic
10 June 2024, 19:56 | Updated: 11 June 2024, 07:14
On Sunday night, the French president called snap parliamentary elections.
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The trigger: Macron’s party, Renew, suffered heavy losses at the EU elections.
The big winner was the far-right National Rally, which claimed 31% of the vote. Renew came a distant second with a mere 14%.
The mood at the National Rally HQ in Paris was jubilant. All eyes were on Jordan Bardella, the 28-year–old party leader and protégé of Marine Le Pen - a savvy TikToker, he spearheaded the party’s EU election campaign.
Shortly after 8pm, Bardella swaggered onto the stage. The crowd cheered.
“The president of the Republic cannot remain deaf to the message sent tonight by the French,” Bardella said.
“We ask him solemnly to take note of this new political situation, to go to the people, and to organise new parliamentary elections.”
Moments later, Macron did just that.
“Let the sovereign people have their say,” he declared in a speech at the Elysée Palace.
The elections will take place on 30 June and 7 July. No one in France, probably not even Bardella and Le Pen, thought that this would actually happen.
Macron was under no obligation to dissolve parliament. Yes, his party was defeated at the EU elections. Yes, the results were a clear rejection of his government.
But nothing in the French constitution required him to take such a drastic measure. The president could have licked his wounds.
He could have set out to form an alliance with social democrats on the left and liberals on the right. And he could have bid his time.
But Macron has lost the patience to govern. His decision to call snap elections is the equivalent of jumping out of a plane mid-flight—without checking if you have a parachute in your bag—because the plane is being delayed by bad weather.
The most likely outcome is that the National Rally wins enough seats to form the next government. “We are ready to exercise power,” Le Pen said on Sunday night.
In this scenario, the next French prime minister would probably be Bardella.
Although Le Pen is the more senior politician, she has repeatedly said she doesn’t want the job. She has set her sights on an even bigger job: winning the presidency in 2027.
As prime minister, Bardella would be the head of the French government. Macron would still retain control on defence and foreign policy, but the country would be run by the National Rally and its allies.
Macron is hoping the prospect of the far-right in power will scare the French people.
“The far-right represents at once the impoverishment of the French and the downgrading of our country,” he said on Sunday night.
In the days to come, the president is going to try to rally the nation. He will make the case for a Republican front against the far-right. But chances are slim that it works out.
The French parties are too divided. Macron is too unpopular.
And there is too little time before the elections. Right now, the National Rally is holding all the aces.
Bar a major surprise, the far-right will be in power next month.
But Macron might have decided to call the snap elections knowing full well that the National Rally will come out on top. The rationale: they’ve flourished in opposition; they’ll wither in government.
Macron might be thinking that the only thing that can destroy the far-right is to let them govern. Handing power to the National Rally today will ruin them tomorrow.
They will prove incompetent and the French people will turn their back on them. Come 2027, Le Pen will be toast.
If this is really what Macron is thinking, then it’s a ploy so cynical it makes Machiavelli look like a choir boy.
It’s also a major miscalculation—and a dangerous one.
For one, it would still hand over power to the far-right, even if Macron remains president.
For another, as recent history has shown, incompetence doesn’t automatically result in losing popularity with voters. The reason: Demagogues have a habit of blaming their failures on others.
Examples abound. Donald Trump, the former American president, might be returned to the White House in November. Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president, remains hugely popular with swathes of the Brazilian population.
And Viktor Orbán, the president of Hungary, has been re-elected several times.
Almost a decade ago, when he became president, Macron made a promise to the French people.
“I will protect the Republic,” he said.
Macron has now broken his promise. With his latest decision, he’s endangering the Republic.
*** Theo Zenou is a Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society
