Britain’s Strategic Defence Review is the most important in a generation

2 June 2025, 16:46

The upcoming Strategic Defence Review is the most significant in a generation.

Following two decades consumed by wars of choice, from Iraq to Helmand, via the Sahel and Syria, Britain now confronts something it has not faced earnestly since the Cold War: a genuine, large-scale conventional threat on Europe’s eastern flank.

Initial reports suggest the government has, at last, grasped the primary military lesson of Ukraine: firepower matters. Victory on a modern battlefield requires not only courage and professionalism but also mass: artillery, ammunition, drones, logistics, and the industrial strength to sustain them. The SDR appears to recognise this, with new funding for munitions stockpiles and long-term production contracts. That’s welcome. However, it is only a first step.

Early reports suggest that the SDR falls short in addressing a more uncomfortable reality: the post-America world. The United States remains a superpower, yet its reliability as an ally has diminished. Whether under Trump or Biden, American strategic focus has shifted towards the Pacific and inward to domestic dysfunction. Europeans are slowly waking up to this. Britain must now plan as if it may one day fight without American firepower at its back. This necessitates asking how we can rebuild our own.

Here we confront the second hard lesson from Ukraine and Gaza as well: mass wins. Ukraine has survived and even gained some ground because it has managed to generate and regenerate large numbers of men and materials, with assistance. To pacify a Hamas fighting force of 30 to 40,000 in a densely populated urban area, the Israel Defence Force has deployed around 300,000 troops and five divisions in Gaza. In contrast, Britain has an army that could fit inside Wembley Stadium with room to spare. Our war reserves wouldn't last a week in a genuine conflict. And the Royal Navy, despite all its new kit, is a fleet of exquisite eggs in too few baskets.

Solving this requires more than a doctrinal tweak; it requires cash. Real money. Defence is expensive. The talk of 3% of GDP, as Labour’s John Healey hinted recently, is encouraging, but that represents a significant jump from today’s spending. Furthermore, every additional pound for defence will come at the expense of something else: the NHS, schools, or welfare. In a time of economic pressure and crumbling public services, the government must now do what successive governments have long shirked: explain to the British people why this spending matters, and why it matters now.

That will not be easy. There is no army massing across the Channel. There is no nightly footage of missiles raining down on Portsmouth or Preston, and so the threat from Russia, including its sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and undersea cable tampering, feels abstract. It should not. Britain is already under attack in the grey zone. We have simply not joined the dots. The government must assist the public in connecting them, and swiftly.

That signifies honesty. The strategic environment has fundamentally transformed. The ‘peace dividend’ years are behind us. We are not preparing for peacekeeping or counterinsurgency in dusty outposts. We are preparing, once more, for the possibility

of high-intensity state-on-state warfare on our own continent. A conflict that could come swiftly, with little warning, and that we may have to engage in without our largest ally. This necessitates a serious discussion with the public regarding national priorities, sacrifice, and the true cost of security.

At the same time, we cannot do this alone. Too many of our European allies remain stuck in the talking phase, “jaw-jaw”, not “war-war”, squabbling over who buys what from whom and who pays for it. The UK needs to take the lead: diplomatically, industrially, and militarily. This means leveraging AUKUS and the Joint Expeditionary Force. It involves pushing NATO partners more rigorously to meet their commitments, not just in GDP terms but in real warfighting capability. Additionally, it means fixing our own house first: rebuilding our own capacity to deter, to fight if necessary, and to win.

The Strategic Defence Review represents a turning point. However, a strategy is only as effective as the political will and public support that underpin it. We are at the overdue beginning of a long journey. What is required now is clarity, courage, and leadership.

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Andrew Fox is a retired Army Major and defence commentator.

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