Theresa May's No Confidence Vote: What Happens Now?

12 December 2018, 09:19 | Updated: 28 October 2019, 15:53

Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence tonight. Will she lose the vote, who could replace her and how does the vote work?

The threshold of 48 letters - 15% of Conservative MPs - have been received by Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, which triggers the vote of no confidence against Theresa May.

When will the vote of no confidence take place?

A ballot will be held between 18.00 and 20.00 this evening, Wednesday 12th December, in committee room 14 of the House of Commons.

The votes will be counted immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible in the evening.

How many votes does Theresa May need to win the vote of no confidence?

Theresa May needs 159 of the Conservative MPs to back her to win tonight's vote, 50% +1 of the number of Tories sitting in Parliament.

What happens if Theresa May wins the vote of no confidence?

Cabinet Ministers are saying that a win of just one vote will be enough to keep going. If she wins, another leadership contest can't be held for another 12 months.

However, LBC's Political Editor Theo Usherwood revealed that if 100 MPs vote against the Prime Minister, she will find it very difficult to remain in charge.

What happens if Theresa May loses the vote of no confidence?

If Theresa May fails to get the required 159 votes, she will then face a leadership contest.

Any Conservative MP is able to put their hat in the ring to compete to become the next leader.

MPs hold a series of secret votes to whittle down the candidates until they reach the final two, who are then put to the Conservative Party members.

The winner of that vote will be the new leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.

Will Theresa May lose the no confidence vote?

Cabinet ministers have thrown their weight behind Theresa May. As the threshold of 48 letters has been reached, we know there will be a minimum of 48 people voting against the Prime Minister. But can they reach the 159 needed?

At the time of writing - and things can change quickly - the Betfair exchange give Theresa May a 66% chance of surviving tonight's vote.

Boris Johnson is the favourite to be the next Conservative leader
Boris Johnson is the favourite to be the next Conservative leader. Picture: PA

Who will replace Theresa May?

According to Ladbrokes, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab are both favourites to be the next Tory leader at 4/1. Remainers Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt follow.

Boris Johnson 4/1
Dominic Raab 4/1
Sajid Javid 6/1
Jeremy Hunt 8/1
Michael Gove 8/1
Amber Rudd 16/1
David Davis 16/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg 16/1