
Tom Swarbrick 4pm - 6pm
22 April 2025, 14:30
The role of migrants in crime is one of those issues that generates strong responses whatever side of the debate people sit on.
People who are broadly sympathetic toward migrants see them as a group that is often demonised and who are singled out for blame, while crimes committed by non-migrants don't mention the immigration status of the perpetrator. For people who have concerns about migration, the idea of non-citizens committing offences symbolises a rejection of British values and lack of control over who comes to the UK.
Stepping back from this emotive debate, there some basic empirical questions. To what extent do non-UK citizens in the UK commit crimes, and why and when does it happen? Do non-citizens with criminal records have the same risk factors as Brits, such as low income and age? How many offenders are people with permanent status who have lived in the country for decades, versus those who have arrived more recently? How many came on standard visa routes such as family or student visas, overstayed visit visas, arrived in the UK without authorisation, or claimed asylum? What share of non-citizens convicted of offences are liable for deportation, what share are deported, and what were the barriers to removing those who do not leave the UK?
Most of these questions can’t be answered using the data that is currently published. We know that last year, 12% of people in prison in England and Wales were non-UK citizens. Non-citizens struggle to get bail while waiting for their trials, so a share of them have not been convicted. But we can also look at the number of convicted offenders, where non-citizens made up 10.0%. That is similar to non-citizens’ share of the England and Wales population, which was 9.9% at the time of the 2021 Census and will have increased since then due to unusually high migration post-Brexit.
People from some countries appear to have higher rates of incarceration, such as Albanians, and others have lower rates, such as Indian citizens. Many of these differences will result from differences in age and socio-economic status, since low income is an important risk factor for offending.
But beyond these basic statistics, data on non-citizens' journey through the criminal justice system—from arrests and convictions to deportation—is limited. Media reports suggest the government will start to publish more crime data by nationality, so will this help?
While some worry that more data will fuel an already divisive debate, it is important to have clear data that gives the full picture. That includes data by nationality, but also by immigration status, years of residence in the UK, and other demographic characteristics.
The truth is, the impacts of migration on crime are already part of the public debate. Insufficient data feeds unnecessary speculation, as well as accusations that the government is deliberately withholding information. With decent data we could have an informed debate about whether there is a problem to be addressed and, if so, what to do about it.
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Dr Madeleine Sumption is Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.
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