Starmer knows his alliance with Trump is more important than ever - the G7 proves it

17 June 2025, 13:48 | Updated: 17 June 2025, 13:50

The UK-US alliance is more important than ever as the US-Europe rift remains in place: the Middle East remains as important as ever to both as the Iran-Israel conflict threatens to spill out of control.

To some, the G7 Summit in Canada was a mixed bag. Yes, President Trump left early - and without signing the joint statement on Iran - but there was agreement on a ‘big and beautiful’ US-UK trade deal, a win for Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Early reports on the trade deal indicate that the aerospace industry will have no tariffs at all, while the auto industry will be reduced to 10% (from the current 25%) for up to 100,000 imported vehicles. Tariffs remain on UK steel - to be expected given the tough times the US industry is experiencing - but there might be some arrangements made similar to that of cars.

This is all good news for the UK-US relationship, not least because the Prime Minister has realised the best position the UK can have is as a bridge between Europe and the US.

The Trans-Atlantic rift has yet to heal fully, and there remains an inability for Europeans to understand President Trump’s trade grievances, as well as an inability for President Trump to appreciate the importance of the EU to European (and US) peace and security. It’s tragic because the G7 is precisely the type of grouping needed to bring the West together to combat the geoeconomic and geostrategic attacks of our adversaries, from China’s tech mercantilism, to its dumping, and IP-theft, to maintaining sanctions on Russia for its illegal invasion of neighbour Ukraine - the democratic peace is in tatters and badly in need of a D10, or a Liberty Network, or a League of Democracies (or whatever we decide to call it).

However, the other takeaway came with the news that 31 US refuelling aircraft took off for European bases on Monday in response to the prospect of a wider Iran-Israel conflict. Until this weekend, many had been predicting a world in which the United States focused on defending Taiwan from China in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, Europe held the line in Ukraine and the Baltic states against Russia. As we saw with the confirmation hearing for US Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby - the architect of the US prioritisation of China - the Middle East has a way of dragging us back in.

The recent UK Strategic Defence Review notably listed the Middle East as its second priority theatre, following Europe. As we contemplate challenges from our authoritarian adversaries across three fronts, this now appears rather prescient.

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Dr John Hemmings is Deputy Director at the Council on Geostrategy and a Senior Adviser at the Pacific Forum

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