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Britain’s war-fighting wake-up call: Defence review must be a start, not a slogan, warns military expert
2 June 2025, 17:00
Britain stands at a crossroads not seen since the darkest days of the Cold War.
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Today's Strategic Defence Review, described by Major Andrew Fox as “the most significant in a generation”, signals a belated but necessary awakening to the scale of the threat now facing Europe.
After decades of expeditionary “wars of choice”, the United Kingdom must once again prepare for the unthinkable: a major, state-on-state conflict on its own continent.
The comments come after the Prime Minister said the UK will move to "war-fighting readiness", as questions remained about his plans to increase defence spending.
Read more: Britain’s Strategic Defence Review is the most important in a generation
The Prime Minister said he was "100% confident" the plans in the new strategic defence review - including extra attack submarines, £15 billion on nuclear warheads and thousands of new long-range weapons - could be delivered on current funding plans.
The Government will increase defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product from April 2027 with an ambition - but no firm commitment - to increase it to 3% during the next parliament.
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But, writing exclusively for LBC, Major Fox delivers a blunt assessment: “Victory on a modern battlefield requires not only courage and professionalism but also mass: artillery, ammunition, drones, logistics, and the industrial strength to sustain them.”
The war in Ukraine has laid bare the brutal arithmetic of modern warfare.
While the Government’s new funding for munitions stockpiles and long-term production contracts is a welcome step, Fox warns it is only the beginning.
The uncomfortable reality, he notes, is that Britain must now plan for a future in which American military support can no longer be taken for granted. “Britain must now plan as if it may one day fight without American firepower at its back.”
The numbers are sobering: “Britain has an army that could fit inside Wembley Stadium with room to spare. Our war reserves wouldn't last a week in a genuine conflict. And the Royal Navy, despite all its new kit, is a fleet of exquisite eggs in too few baskets.”
This strategic vulnerability is echoed by Joakim Sjöblom, Co-Founder and CEO of Swedish TNT manufacturer SWEBAL, who is overseeing Sweden’s first large-scale TNT production facility in decades. Sjöblom warns that Europe is “lagging dangerously far behind Russia”, which now produces five million artillery shells a year—more than double the entire European output.
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Russia’s annual explosives production, equivalent to 50,000 tonnes of TNT, dwarfs Europe’s 6,000 tonnes, leaving the continent perilously reliant on Asian imports.“The factory is now the frontline,” Sjöblom observes. “Russia is outgunning the rest of Europe. Unless we reindustrialise and decentralise our production, we risk being outmatched in any future conflict.”
Major Fox is clear: rebuilding Britain’s warfighting capacity will require more than doctrinal tweaks. “Defence is expensive. The talk of 3% of GDP is encouraging, but that represents a significant jump from today’s spending. Every additional pound for defence will come at the expense of something else: the NHS, schools, or welfare.”
He urges ministers to be honest with the public about the scale of the threat.
“There is no army massing across the Channel. There is no nightly footage of missiles raining down on Portsmouth or Preston, and so the threat from Russia, including its sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and undersea cable tampering, feels abstract. It should not. Britain is already under attack in the grey zone. We have simply not joined the dots.”
The era of the so-called ‘peace dividend’ is over. “We are not preparing for peacekeeping or counterinsurgency in dusty outposts. We are preparing, once more, for the possibility of high-intensity state-on-state warfare on our own continent,” Fox writes. This, he insists, requires a serious national conversation about priorities, sacrifice, and the true cost of security.
Both Fox and Sjöblom agree that Britain cannot face these challenges alone. The UK must lead by example—diplomatically, industrially, and militarily—while pressing NATO allies to fulfil their obligations not just in GDP terms, but in real warfighting capability. Decentralising and expanding munitions production across Europe is essential to reduce vulnerability to attack or disruption.
As Major Fox concludes, “The Strategic Defence Review represents a turning point. However, a strategy is only as effective as the political will and public support that underpin it. We are at the overdue beginning of a long journey. What is required now is clarity, courage, and leadership.
”With Russia’s war machine grinding on and Europe’s arsenals perilously depleted, the time for half-measures is over. Britain must rearm, reindustrialise, and reawaken to the realities of power in a dangerous world—or risk being found wanting when the next crisis comes.
Meanwhile, Britain needs to be ready for the possibility that Vladimir Putin's Russia could replenish its armed forces within two years and threaten other nations, in the event the Ukraine war ends, a former head of the Army has said.
Lord Dannatt, former chief of the general staff, said the Government needs to "get over to the people of our country the nature of the threat that we currently face from an aggressive Vladimir Putin's Russia".
He added: "We've seen it working out in Ukraine, and frankly, if there is some form of ceasefire in Ukraine in the next few months, the experts say it will take the Russians about two years to refurbish their armed forces before they're ready to go again.
"Their economy is now on a war footing, and they can up their production of all that they need. That's when Vladimir Putin would like to test the strength of Nato, test article 5 of Nato where an attack on one is an attack on all.
"If he probes at Estonia, what will America do? What will we do? The best way is... to be strong in order to buy peace."
