CIA believes Covid-19 'more likely' to have started in lab - but it has low confidence in its conclusion

25 January 2025, 22:21

The CIA now believes the most plausible explanation for the origins of Covid-19 is that it leaked from a laboratory in China, it has emerged.

The American spy agency’s assessment has taken aim at a lab in the Chinese city of Wuhan despite admitting it has "low confidence" in its own conclusion.

The bombshell development comes after new CIA chief John Ratcliffe, installed by President Donald Trump, declassified and released a report on Covid’s origins. 

It finds the agency believes the totality of evidence makes a lab leak theory more plausible than the zoonotic theory - which posits that it jumped from animals to humans. 

However, the agency's assessment only assigns a low degree of confidence to this argument.

A spokesperson from the spy agency said:"[The] CIA continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the Covid-19 pandemic remain plausible."

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The CIA "will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA's assessment," the spokesperson added.

The conclusion was based on fresh analyses of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific properties and the work and conditions of China's virology labs.

Legislators have piled the pressure on America's spy agencies for additional information about how the virus emerged and sparked a global health crisis killing millions.

But Intelligence officials say it may never be resolved due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.

Meanwhile, scientists still believe the most likely explanation for Covid's origin is that it first circulated in bats before infecting another species and later being passed on to humans. 

However, some official investigations have hammered questioning around whether the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan.

A report by the US Department of Energy released two years ago also found the lab leak theory the most plausible. 

But like the CIA’s assessment, the energy department also has low confidence in this conclusion.

Mr Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Mr Trump's first term, has previously said he favours the lab leak scenario.

He said back in 2023: "The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense."