Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran disrupts Russia’s missile supply in Ukraine, exposing cracks in Moscow’s defence industry

29 October 2024, 11:23

By EJ Ward

Israel’s retaliatory strikes against Iran have brought to light ripples across the globe, especially impacting Moscow’s position in its war with Ukraine.

Israeli forces targeted Iran’s missile production infrastructure over the weekend, dealing a substantial blow to Iran’s capability to support its network of regional proxies and, unexpectedly, creating complications for Russia’s military as well.

Sources claim Israel targeted "planetary mixers" used to produce solid fuel for Iran's long-range ballistic missiles, which constitute a significant portion of its missile arsenal.

The offensive struck 12 such mixers, all of which Iran currently imports from China, effectively disabling a critical component of Iran's missile production program, according to Axios.

A senior US official confirmed that the strike cripples Iran's missile production capability.

Israel said the strikes were in response to "the continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against Israel". The air strikes resulted in at least seven explosions in and around Tehran and targeted its three military bases in Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan

The attack on Iran damaged facilities at a secretive military base that experts have in the past linked to Tehran's nuclear weapons programme and at another site tied to its ballistic missile systems, satellite photos show.

Images show some of the buildings damaged are within the Parchin military base, where the International Atomic Energy Agency suspects Iran in the past conducted tests of high explosives that could trigger a nuclear weapon.

Read more: Israeli strikes on Iran 'should be the end of it' says US after warnings over nuclear sites heeded

Read more: Iran vows revenge after Israel launches three waves of strikes against military targets

But, this attack has broader implications. For one, Iran’s military capabilities have been integral to Russia’s supply of ballistic weaponry in its conflict with Ukraine.

Specifically, the Fath 360 missile system, with short-range, solid-fuel capabilities, has been part of Iran’s support for Moscow.

Last month US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Iran has been supplying Russia with Fath-360 ballistic missiles, with Russia anticipated to deploy them in the field within weeks.

White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said, "We are aware of these concerning reports, and the transfer would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."

By disrupting Iran’s supply line, Israel may have indirectly impacted Russia’s arsenal, creating potential constraints for Moscow on the Ukrainian front.

Israel's attack on Iran was 'smart' says expert

Russia recently provided Iran with advanced air defence systems, specifically the S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems, aimed at strengthening Iran’s defences against such attacks.

However, as shown in Israel’s weekend assault, these Russian-made systems failed to protect key missile production facilities, raising questions about the reliability of Russia’s technology as a dependable global arms supplier.

As Moscow strives to maintain strong trade in defence with countries like China, India, and Algeria, repeated vulnerabilities in its air defence technology could tarnish Russia’s reputation.

Nuclear and oil sites were spared in the blitz, after the US had warned Israel not to hit the high-value targets.

Despite this, Iran has vowed to take revenge after Israel carried out "precise strikes on military targets" on its territory.

Tehran said it was entitled and obligated to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression", after the airstrikes, which are said to have killed two soldiers.

Beyond the immediate damage to Iran's missile production, Israel’s strikes reveal wider geopolitical consequences. By targeting Iran’s infrastructure, Israel has inadvertently constrained Russia’s arsenal in Ukraine, potentially hindering Moscow’s supply chain and strategy on the Ukrainian front.

The response from Iran has been measured, with Iranian officials denouncing Israel’s actions but refraining from immediate retaliation.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden has expressed support for Israel’s operations, clarifying that Israel’s strikes focused solely on military targets and avoiding any nuclear sites. American officials have cautioned Iran against escalation, viewing the strikes as a final warning.

As these tensions escalate, the region faces growing concerns about a larger conflict, drawing in not just local but international players as well.

Israel’s move may have set off a domino effect, with implications stretching from the Middle East into Eastern Europe, reshaping the dynamics of both Israeli-Iranian hostilities and Russia’s strategy in Ukraine.