Ministers urged to 'get a grip' on the army as troop numbers fall, with NATO warning of war with Russia within 20 years
19 January 2024, 23:20 | Updated: 23 January 2024, 08:17
The government has been urged to "get a grip" on the British army, with troop numbers falling fast, amid NATO warnings that Western countries could be at war with Russia within two decades.
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The British army could number just 52,000 troops in ten years, based on current trends, an analysis has shown.
It currently stands at around 76,000 regular full-time troops, down from nearly 103,000 in 2012. The government plans to cut the number of soldiers to 72,500 by next year, which has caused concern among US generals.
But with recruitment proving difficult despite contracts worth more than a billion pounds awarded to a private company to oversee the process, army numbers could drop faster.
Read more: NATO urges civilians in the West to prepare for all-out war with Russia within 20 years
John Healey, Labour's shadow defence secretary, told the Times: "On current trends, our army is set for further decline if ministers do not get to grips with their recruitment and retention crisis."
Despite falling numbers, the UK still considers itself to be a top-tier military power, and the British army is providing 20,000 out of 90,000 NATO troops taking part in major exercises that are starting next week.
Britain is one of eight NATO members - out of 30 - who invested 2% of its GDP in the military, which all members previously agreed to do.
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But some are concerned that the UK hasn't invested enough in military equipment. One European NATO general said that the UK "can’t put a brigade in the field" and has "kit falling apart", the paper reported.
The UK has still shown itself to be a willing partner to the US, notably supporting Washington in its recent strikes on the Houthis rebels in Yemen.
A US general said of the UK that "while being the most important ally across the board, it is decidedly not what it used to be, regrettably."
He also said that the UK had "diminished capabilities over the past couple of decades".
It comes after a top NATO official warned that people living in Western countries should prepare for an all-out war with Russia within the next 20 years.
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The Netherlands' Admiral Rob Bauer said that although NATO and member governments are readying themselves for conflict with Vladimir Putin's regime, civilians must realise that they also have a role to play.
He told reporters that civilians would have to be mobilised in large numbers if war broke out, and governments would have to prepare for how to manage that process.
Adml Bauer, who is the chairman of NATO's military committee, said: "We have to realise it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why we [Nato forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia.
"But the discussion is much wider. It is also the industrial base and also the people that have to understand they play a role."
Both German and Swedish governments have warned recently that a NATO war with Russia could be on the horizon.
German defence minister Boris Pistorius said: "We have to take into account that Vladimir Putin will one day even attack a Nato country.
"Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible. At the moment I don’t think a Russian attack is likely."
The UK's Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps, said it was important not to be "alarmist".
"It is vital that we continue to lead, deter hostile states and act to defend our country whenever and wherever we need," he told the Telegraph.
"But I would also say that nothing is inevitable. We can deter such threats by being prepared and standing strong with our allies. That is why we are investing in our Armed Forces and our allies.
"This is not about being alarmist. It’s about being ready and being in the right place to defend our interests."
Meanwhile the head of the UK's counter-terror policing said that the threat from hostile states was at the highest level since the Cold War.
The Metropolitan Police's Assistant Commissioner Matt Jukes said: "We are very concerned by the risk of espionage, foreign interference from state apparatus and hostile state activity.
"We are talking about part of the state apparatus of Iran, China and Russia, that triple threat is different in each case but we are seeing some trends."
He added: "The whole environment is very different, probably the most acute picture of threat around espionage and foreign interference, these state threats, the most acute threat since the Cold War."
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence said: "Whilst there are undoubted challenges to military recruitment, people are at the heart of the military and the MoD is taking tangible and concrete steps to address shortfalls.
"More widely, the UK is spending more than £50 billion on defence this year to protect our interests wherever they are threatened."
