Coming weeks in India will be 'horrible', expert warns as Covid deaths mount

4 May 2021, 10:23 | Updated: 4 May 2021, 11:06

Funeral pyres of people who have died of Covid-19 burn during a mass cremation at a crematorium
Funeral pyres of people who have died of Covid-19 burn during a mass cremation at a crematorium. Picture: PA

By Patrick Grafton-Green

A top expert has warned the coming weeks in India will be "horrible" as Covid-19 infections and deaths mount with alarming speed.

The country has witnessed scenes of people dying outside overwhelmed hospitals and funeral pyres lighting up the night sky.

Dr Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health in the US, said he is concerned about claims by Indian politicians that things will improve in the next few days.

READ MORE: Australia makes travelling from India a criminal offence as Covid cases surge

He said: "I've been trying to say to them, 'If everything goes very well, things will be horrible for the next several weeks. And it may be much longer'."

Dr Jha said the focus needs to be on "classic" public health measures: targeted shutdowns, more testing, universal mask-wearing and avoiding large gatherings.

'I have family in India and they're not coping well at all'

Why is the situation so bad in India?

The surge in infections in India, which began in February, has been blamed on more contagious variants of the virus as well as government decisions to allow huge crowds to gather for Hindu religious festivals and political rallies before state elections.

The deaths also reflect the fragility of India's health system. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party has faced criticism for pointing out that the underfunding of health care has been chronic.

READ MORE: Under-fire India PM Modi loses in elections as Covid cases surge

India's top health official, Rajesh Bhushan, refused to speculate last month as to why authorities were not better prepared.

Covid-19 patients suffering from breathing difficulty breath with the help of oxygen masks outside Gurudwara
Covid-19 patients suffering from breathing difficulty breath with the help of oxygen masks outside Gurudwara. Picture: PA

But the cost is clear: People are dying because of shortages of bottled oxygen and hospital beds or because they could not get a Covid-19 test.

This was all the more reason for authorities to use the several months when cases in India declined to improve the system, Dr Vineeta Bal of the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research said.

"Only a patchwork improvement would've been possible," she said. But the country "didn't even do that".

Top Indian politician defends government response to new wave of pandemic

Now authorities are scrambling to make up for lost time. Beds are being added in hospitals, more tests are being done, oxygen is being sent from one corner of the country to another, and manufacturing of the few drugs effective against Covid-19 is being increased.

The challenges are steep in states where elections were held and unmasked crowds probably worsened the spread of the virus.

A worker refills oxygen cylinders at a facility as demands rise in the hopitals in Srinagar
A worker refills oxygen cylinders at a facility as demands rise in the hopitals in Srinagar. Picture: PA

For example, the average number of daily infections in West Bengal state has increased by a multiple of 32 to over 17,000 since the balloting began.

"It's a terrifying crisis," said Dr Punyabrata Goon, convener of the West Bengal Doctors' Forum.

Dr Goon added that the state also needs to speed up its vaccine rollout.

India-based caller tells LBC of the 'real fear' as Covid worsens

The world's largest maker of vaccines is short of jabs as a result of lagging manufacturing and raw material shortages.

Experts are also concerned the prices being charged for jabs will make it harder for the poor to get vaccinated. On Monday, opposition parties urged the government make vaccinations free to all Indians.

India is vaccinating about 2.1 million people daily, or around 0.15% of its population.

People line up to get the Covid-19 vaccine in Prayagraj
People line up to get the Covid-19 vaccine in Prayagraj. Picture: PA

Dr Ravi Gupta, a virus expert at the University of Cambridge, said: "This is not going to end very soon. And really... the soul of the country is at risk in a way."

What do the latest figures tell us?

Coronavirus cases in the country of nearly 1.4 billion surpassed 20 million on Tuesday, nearly doubling in the past three months, while deaths officially passed 220,000.

The numbers are staggering, but the true figures are believed to be far higher, the undercount an apparent reflection of troubles in the health care system.

Shocking and heartbreaking - epidemiologist updates on India

Official death and infection figures are considered unreliable because testing is patchy and reporting incomplete

For example, records of those handling the bodies of Covid-19 victims in New Dehli show 1,680 dead on Sunday.

But in the same 24-hour period, only 407 deaths were added to the official toll from New Delhi.

A relative of a woman who died of Covid-19 breaks down during cremation in Poonch
A relative of a woman who died of Covid-19 breaks down during cremation in Poonch. Picture: PA

Despite this, the country's official average of newly confirmed cases per day has still soared from over 65,000 on April 1 to about 370,000, and deaths per day have officially gone from over 300 to more than 3,000.

On Tuesday, the health ministry reported 357,229 new cases in the past 24 hours and 3,449 deaths from Covid-19.

Medical volunteer explains devastating Covid situation in India

How the UK is affected?

The India variant - also known as B.1.617 - was first noted internationally in October and first identified in the UK on February 22.

It has 13 mutations including two in the virus' spike protein known as E494Q and L452R.

Two weeks ago, a further 55 cases of the strain were discovered in the UK, bringing the total number of cases to 132.

The variant, which is not yet considered to be a variant of concern, is being investigated to determine if it can spread faster or evade protection given by vaccines.

A family member performs the last rites of a person who died with coronavirus at a crematorium in New Delhi
A family member performs the last rites of a person who died with coronavirus at a crematorium in New Delhi. Picture: PA

Amid the sharp increase in cases in India and growing concerns the variant could continue to spread in the UK, India was placed on the red list on April 22, effectively banning most travel.

People returning from India must quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days, while anyone who is not a UK or Irish resident or a British citizen will be banned from entering the country if they have been in India in the previous 10 days.

Over the weekend Prime Minister Boris Johnson committed fresh assistance for India as he announced the UK was sending the country a further 1,000 ventilators.

READ MORE: UK rushes to send 1,000 more ventilators to India as Covid surge kills thousands daily

This was in addition to 200 sent last week, in shipments that have included nearly 500 oxygen concentrators.

Did the Government act fast enough adding India to the Red List?

Mr Johnson made the pledge ahead of a call with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi on Tuesday.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will also meet his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar this week as he hosts face-to-face meetings with G7 foreign ministers.

Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, have spoken to their counterparts in India to share the expertise they have gained during the pandemic. 

NHS England is also establishing a clinical advisory group to support India's response by sharing knowledge on how to manage outbreaks.

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

An F-35 Lightning stealth jet performing a flypast during the commissioning ceremony for 809 Naval Air Squadron at RAF Marham in King's Lynn in Norfolk

Britain's most advanced warplane plagued by delays and shortfalls 'a disappointing return' on £11bn cost, NAO says

Columbus School and College, Chelmsford, United Kingdom. Architect: Haverstock Associates LLP, 2013. Panorama of schoolyard with

Special needs school put students at 'risk of harm' as headteacher sacked

Gregg Wallace outside ITV Studios  Featuring: Gregg Wallace Where: London, United Kingdom When: 29 Nov 2016

Gregg Wallace formally sacked from BBC over no confidence 'learned behaviour' can be changed

GPs will be told to stop giving sick notes to sign people off work.

GPs told to stop handing out sick notes and start sending people to job coaches and gyms

A TUI plane destined for Gatwick was diverted to an airport in Maine, US.

Brits stranded in 'war zone' conditions for 12 hours as TUI plane diverts mid-flight due to 'smoking'

The charred remains of Grenfell Tower, Notting Hill, London, Britain. The 24 storey residential Tower block was engulfed in flames in the summer of 2017.

Grenfell families accuse government of ‘shameless betrayal’ over pause on investigation into 'implicated' firms

John Lacey, 42, was sentenced to 14-months imprisonment.

Thug, 42, jailed for punching pregnant girlfriend in stomach in attack that 'changed victim forever'

Morgan Gibbs-White is set to join Tottenham

Nottingham Forest star Morgan Gibbs-White set to join Tottenham in £60m transfer

Empty shop with To Let sign in central West London.

London store closures hit 10-year high - as government urged to invest £5bn to save UK's high-streets

Liverpool Women v Aston Villa Women - Pre Season Friendly

Arsenal close to record-breaking £1m signing of Liverpool’s Olivia Smith in landmark deal

Blue Stevens was stabbed to death in Knightsbridge after 'standing up to someone who was trying to steal his watch'

'I can't stop crying': Heartbroken mum of man stabbed to death outside five-star hotel 'for his Rolex' pays tribute

'Birkin' bag by Hermes which belonged to British-French actress and singer Jane Birkin

Original Hermes Birkin bag which belonged to actress Jane Birkin sells for £8.6 million

Parts of an Air India plane that crashed on Thursday are seen on top of a building in Ahmedabad, India, Friday, June 13, 2025.

Investigators look into Air India's vital engine switches after plane crash killed 270 people

Sean O'Meara

Four suspicious devices found where police shot chainsaw-wielding man in gas mask

Distressing footage Body worn footage shows PC Lydia Ward being comforted by colleagues as she is bleeding from the nose after she tried to arrest an assault suspect at Manchester Airport.

Shocking clip shows cop with bloodied nose crying after Manchester Airport brawl as bodycam footage shown to jury

A neurosurgeon pointing towards a computer as they analyse a patient MRI Scan at a brain surgery clinic.

Air pollution exposure increases risk of common brain tumour, study suggests