Return to Tier system after lockdown will see Covid cases spike, SAGE warns

13 November 2020, 20:21

Scientists have warned that the R rate could increase under the Tier system
Scientists have warned that the R rate could increase under the Tier system. Picture: PA

By Maddie Goodfellow

Lockdown measures currently in place in England are likely to take the coronavirus R number below one but returning to the previous tiered system will cause infections to rise back to levels seen early in November, Government scientists have said.

In a set of new documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on Friday, the experts said that if the four-week lockdown measures are well adhered to, the number of hospital admissions and deaths can be expected to fall until at least the second week of December.

But they added a longer-term outlook will depend on both the nature of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented after December 2, when the lockdown measures are expected to be lifted, and policies over the festive period.

A document, dated November 4, said: "If England returns to the same application of the tiering system in place before November 5, then transmission will return to the same rate of increase as today."

On October 12, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced England would be placed into "medium", "high" and "very high" alert levels - or Tier 1, 2 and 3 - involving varying restrictions aimed at tackling the virus.

But as the number of coronavirus infections continued to rise, a four-week lockdown was introduced on November 5.

The number of new daily cases across the UK is currently thought to be between 55,000 and 81,000.

Three members of the same family die with COVID-19 in five days

Experts believe R - which represents the number of people a Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect - is below one in some places, particularly in the north west of England.

Meanwhile, another Sage document suggests the national outbreak is still at a "high and controlled" phase.

If this remains the case, or if the outbreak returns to current levels after the lockdown, Sage has advised there is "little to no scope for loosening of social distancing rules over Christmas".

But if prevalence is "low and controlled" and R is "well below one" for some time, the experts say there may be a "greater potential for loosening of social distancing rules for a limited period of time during the festive period".

The Government scientists said if R is reduced to 1.1 or lower for some time, there may be a "limited accumulation of population immunity".

This, they say, will start reducing the average population susceptibility to the virus and slow down transmission.

Chris Hopson: Hospital waiting times 'not an ideal situation'

Sage said: "When R is 1.1, only 9% of the remaining susceptible (ie, not previously infected) population need to be infected for R to fall to one, solely as a result of the natural dynamics of the epidemic.

"At this point, in some sense, population immunity has caused the epidemic to plateau."

However, they added that population immunity is "very different from a classic 'herd immunity' scenario, where an epidemic has run through a population with limited impact of control measures".

The experts said in a population immunity scenario, there "will be very limited room to relax interventions, since the absolute level of population immunity reached will likely still be low".

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

Dame Diana Johnson said “there is absolutely no place for violent, misogynistic and harmful content online”, after several MPs urged the Government to expand the definition of “extreme pornographic images”.

‘No place for violent content online,’ says policing minister in pornography ban pledge

Missing Jay Slater witness found 'holidaying' in Tenerife as inquest hears Jay, 19, died with alcohol in his system

Friend of missing Jay Slater witness reveals details of 'two knives' carried by teen on the night he died in Tenerife

Devastating new footage has emerged showing the lone survivor of the Air India plane crash carrying the coffin of his younger brother, who died in the fatal disaster.

New video shows heartbreaking moment lone Air India survivor limps as he carries brother’s coffin at funeral

Claire Boyd underwent surgery in a bid to address a long history of abdominal pain

Family walks out of inquest after coroner rejects malnutrition in hospital death

Inquests into the deaths of the women, who were both born in Pakistan but lived in Maltsby, Rotherham, South Yorkshire, were opened on Wednesday.

Sisters drown in pools on popular Snowdonia route, inquest told

A police cordon blocking the inside lane of the northbound carriageway on the M1 motorway near Bucknalls Lane overpass in Hertfordshire, where a man's body was found by road workers on Monday.

Horror crash sees M1 closed 'in both directions' with emergency services including air ambulance in attendance

Bruce Springsteen performs on stage

First look at upcoming Bruce Springsteen biopic starring Jeremy Allen White divides fans

Liz Kendall, Work and Pensions Secretary and Labour MP for Leicester West spoke to LBC's Tom Swarbrick.

Liz Kendall unable to say how much the changes in the Welfare Bill announced today will end up costing

Exclusive
Brexit has unleashed ‘backstreet medicine’ across Britain, warns leading pharmacist

Brexit has unleashed ‘backstreet medicine’ across Britain, warns leading pharmacist

The record breaking ticket was bought in Munster. It is still unclaimed

'Have a cup of tea and let it sink in': Lottery bosses message to record Euromillions winner as prize yet unclaimed

Exclusive
Joe and his friends found the fraudulent listing on RightMove and OpenRent.

‘We lost £5,000 in a rental fraud scam and now we’re facing homelessness’

Ruth Jones and husband David Peet split up after 26 years. he is now in a new relationship in Canada

Gavin and Stacey star Ruth Jones splits from husband after 26 years

Iran's supreme leader has hit back at Trump.

'Nobody knows what I'm gonna do': Trump's cryptic message as Iran brands claims of Washington talks 'despicable lies'

The Adalynn and Front Eagle tankers collided and caught on fire on Tuesday close to the Strait of Hormuz.

Navigational mistake led to oil tanker collision near Strait of Hormuz, says UAE official

Marine experts are set to bring the stricken Bayesian to the surface

Tech tycoon Mike Lynch's sunken superyacht to be raised from the seabed this weekend

Police officers stand next to a restaurant as people protest against overtourism in the Balearic island of Mallorca

Spain: Brits warned of tough rules for holidaying this summer