Labour 'on course for biggest election victory in 100 years', as Tories set for worst result since 1906

3 June 2024, 17:52 | Updated: 4 June 2024, 00:35

Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer
Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer. Picture: Alamy

By Kit Heren

Labour are set to secure the biggest General Election victory in 100 years, according to a new analysis of 60,000 voter intentions.

Listen to this article

Loading audio...

YouGov estimate that Sir Keir Starmer's party are on track to win a majority of 194 seats, second only to Stanley Baldwin in 1924.

The poll has Labour on 422 seats, an increase of 222 compared to 2019, with the Conservatives down 225 to 140.

This result "would be beyond landslide territory," according to the pollsters.

If the polling was borne out at the election on July 4, it would give Labour the highest amount of seats in its history - more even than Tony Blair's party won in 1997.

Read more: 'I've changed my mind': Nigel Farage standing to be Reform MP after last minute U-turn

Read more: General Election LIVE: Keir Starmer says ‘new age of insecurity has begun’ at defence speech

Election 2024 - The latest polls

By contrast, a return of 140 seats would be the Conservatives' worst result since 1906, and several prominent Cabinet ministers would be set to lose their seats.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Attorney General Victoria Prentis, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Welsh Secretary David Davies, and Armed Forces minister Johnny Mercer, are all on course to leave the Commons, according to the poll.

The Liberal Democrats would win 48 seats, according to this prediction, up 37 on the 2019 result.

The SNP would lost 31 MPs, falling to 17 seats. The Greens would double their contingent in the Commons, with two MPs. Plaid Cymru would lose two of their four MPs.

Jeremy Hunt could be set to lose his seat
Jeremy Hunt could be set to lose his seat. Picture: Alamy

Reform UK would have no MPs, although the fieldwork for the poll was done before Nigel Farage announced he was standing in Clacton.

YouGov said: "With a central projection of 422 Labour wins, this result would be beyond landslide territory.

Tom Swarbrick reacts as Nigel Farage reveals he is to stand in the General Election

"Not only would Starmer’s majority be bigger than the number Tony Blair achieved in 1997 (179), but it would in fact be the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.

"The Conservatives would be reduced to 140 seats, according to our model today. That would be their worst performance at a British general election for the party since 1906 – the first election where the Labour Party, then led by another Keir [Hardie], went into double-digit seat wins [27]."

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

Here's everything we know about missing teenager Jay Slater.

Everything we know about missing British teenager Jay Slater who vanished on holiday in Tenerife

William appeared at Ascot

Prince William shares tender moment with Kate's mother as she suffers mishap at Ascot

Jay Slater's family have warned people about donating to fake pages

'I just want my baby back': Mother of missing Brit Jay Slater, 19, issues plea after 'false sighting' delays search

Keir Starmer came out on top after LBC’s two exclusive phone-ins

Keir Starmer comes out on top after LBC phone-ins – as Rishi Sunak seen as ‘overwhelmingly negative’

OceanGate co-founder Guillermo Söhnlein is pictured with CEO Stockton Rush, who died on the Titan sub

Oceangate co-founder claims he can 'safely' send 1,000 people to Venus

Labour must ditch 'phoney fiscal rules' and borrow to invest in public services, says boss of UK's largest trade union

Labour must ditch 'phoney fiscal rules' and borrow to invest in public services, says boss of UK's largest trade union

Theo Paphitis speaks to LBC.

'They've lost the plot': Ex-Tory donor and Dragons' Den star Theo Paphitis reveals why he's switched support to Labour

Sir David Ormand has criticised the Conservatives for suggesting Keir Starmer is a security risk

Former spy boss criticises 'disreputable' Tory suggestion that Putin and Xi would welcome Starmer as Prime Minister

Justin Timberlake was arrested on Tuesday

'We'll have a lot to say': Justin Timberlake's lawyer vows to 'vigorously defend' singer after DWI arrest

Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday

Rishi Sunak set 'to become first PM to lose seat' in election wipeout with Conservatives down to just 53 MPs, poll finds

Starmer and Neville

Keir Starmer tells Gary Neville he needs to win British people's trust, as he warns turning UK around will take 10 years

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrives for a visit to Great Wood Farm Early Years Centre, Grantham in East Midlands, June 17

Sunak close protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets

Allen Morgan, 73, said he was locked in a "passionate but forbidden" affair with his now wife Margaret, 75, when he hired a hitman to kill his then-partner Carol

Pensioner found guilty of conspiring to murder wife after hiring hitman amid 'passionate but forbidden' affair

Charlie Cosser

Teenager jailed for life for murdering 17-year-old Charlie Cosser on dance floor at party

Police were called to a property at Shorncliffe Road shortly after 3pm on Sunday

Baby girl mauled to death in dog attack at family home in Coventry

The tourists trying to stop Stonehenge being vandalised

Moment hero tourists grab Just Stop Oil spraying paint on Stonehenge, as activists 'damage rare lichen'