Sunak in danger of losing seat according to damning new MRP poll which predicts fewer than 100 Tory MPs

30 March 2024, 21:18 | Updated: 31 March 2024, 13:51

The Conservatives could have fewer than 100 seats according to a damning new MRP poll - which also shows that Rishi Sunak is in danger of losing his seat.

A 15,000-person poll was used to create a seat-by-seat breakdown, which indicated the Conservatives would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England.

The survey put Labour on 45% with a 19-point lead over the Tories on 26%.

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The constituency forecast suggested Sir Keir Starmer's party could be on course for a landslide, winning 468 seats.

The poll suggests the Scottish National Party would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

In an analysis which will fuel Conservative unease about the threat from Reform UK, the survey suggested Richard Tice's party will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%

But a model of what would happen if Reform UK did not stand suggested the Tories would win 150 seats - still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.

The study, carried out by Survation for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group, suggested several Cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could be ousted at the election as the Tories face their worst result.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats, according to the study, which used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

In Mr Sunak's new Richmond and Northallerton seat, which, based on the 2019 results should be solidly Conservative, he has just a 2.4% lead over Labour, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a 1% margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: "With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it's clear that this will be a change election."

The poll of 15,029 adults and MRP analysis by Survation was conducted between March 8-22.

In a sign of Reform UK's ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: "I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I believed in loyalty when I served in the British Army and I believe it when I serve my constituents on the Isle of Wight, and I believe in it when I am supporting Rishi Sunak.

"I don't cut and run, and neither should we."

A Reform spokesperson told the newspaper: "If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that's up to him."