Conservatives face worse election defeat than John Major's 1997 loss with Labour primed for over 400 seats, poll says
3 April 2024, 17:15 | Updated: 3 April 2024, 17:49
The Conservatives are facing a worse election defeat than in 1997 at the next general election, as Labour prepare for a landslide victory that could give them more than 400 seats, the latest election poll has revealed.
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YouGov's latest seat-by-seat poll will cause further headaches for Rishi Sunak, predicting even worse elections than an equivalent poll in January earlier this year.
Sir Keir Starmer's Labour will be handed a majority of 154 after winning 403 seats in the House of Commons, according to the poll.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, will have just 155 seats - losing 210 seats from the last general election in 2019 - according to the prediction which uses multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling
Read More: Starmer faces backlash from Labour MPs over ‘dominant’ use of union flag in electoral campaign
Several prominent Tory MPs are also predicted to have their own 'Portillo Moment' and could lose their seat.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and leading Brexiteer Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their seats.
According to the pollsters, Rishi Sunak is heading for a worse result than John Major's 1997 defeat, when the then-Tory leader won a total of 165 seats.
The poll for Starmer, however, could put him on course to win a victory on par with that of Tony Blair in his first term of office. In 1997. The party's longest-serving prime minister won 418 of the available 659 Commons seats.
Other big Tory figures at risk of losing their seats include Cabinet members Michelle Donelan, the Science Secretary, and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies.
The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from March 7-27.
The Green Party would continue to hold Brighton Pavilion according to the polling, the seat currently held by Caroline Lucas - who is standing down at the election.
The party is also a close second to Labour in the newly created Bristol Central seat.
The Reform Party, led by Richard Tice, was found to have a growing share of the voting intention by YouGov. It is not predicted to win any seats, however. While it places second in 36 constituencies, it is not close to winning them.
The Lib Dems are meanwhile on course to grow their parliamentary comeback, with a projected win of 49 seats.
North of the border, YouGov estimates that Labour will be the largest party in Scotland. They are projected to win 28 Scottish seats, followed by the SNP with 19.
The Lib Dems and Conservatives would win five each under the modelling.
In Wales, Plaid Cymru is expected to win a total of four seats, including the proposed Caerfyrddin constituency.
