Key seats to watch in General Election as ‘Blue Wall’ faces onslaught from Labour and Lib Dems

22 May 2024, 19:21 | Updated: 22 May 2024, 23:12

Several key seats have been labelled as potentially vulnerable in the General Election.
Several key seats have been labelled as potentially vulnerable in the General Election. Picture: Alamy

By Jenny Medlicott

These key seats are likely to have a big say in which party is elected to power as voters are set to go to polls for the General Election on July 4.

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The General Election is likely to see Mr Sunak attempt to cling on to the ‘Red Wall’ seats Boris Johnson won in his 80-majority victory in 2019.

But polls suggest support for the Conservatives is waning in these areas, as Sir Keir is expected to focus on winning back Labour’s previous strongholds.

Seats such as Blythe Valley, Redcar and Bishop Auckland, were key to Mr Johnson’s success in 2019 - all previous Labour strongholds.

Meanwhile, Mr Sunak is expected to face trouble in the Blue Wall as the Conservatives are at risk of voters turning to towards Labour and the Lib Dems in some seats.

On April 28, a Redfield & Wilton poll of 'Blue Wall' voters found Labour on 34 per cent support, with the Tories on 25 per cent and the Lib Dems on 23 per cent - putting Tory stronghold seats at risk of significant losses.

Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath and Jeremy Hunt’s new Goldaming and Ash constituency are being eyed up by the Lib Dems for July 4.

Meanwhile, Grant Shapps's 10,955 majority in Welwyn Hatfield could be at risk of falling to Labour, according to The Sun.

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is in a vulnerable position in his Cheltenham seat, with a majority of just 981, and Penny Mordaunt has been flagged as a vulnerable seat despite her considerable majority of 15,780.

Labour has its eye on Chipping Barnet where Tory MP Theresa Villiers holds a majority of just 1,212 over Labour.

Read more: Rishi rolls the dice: Soaked Sunak goes for summer poll as he announces General Election will take place on July 4

Read more: Full list of Conservative Cabinet Ministers facing uphill battle to retain seats at General Election

Equally, trouble in the Scottish National Party (SNP) could help secure more seats for Labour.

Labour has overtaken the SNP for the first time since the country’s independence referendum 10 years ago.

Bellwether seats could influence the outcome of the General Election, as Labour won control in recent council elections, such as in Milton Keynes.

If Labour manages to win these bellwether seats in the election, it puts the party in good stead for being elected into government.

Labour is also expected to target the southwest of England as part of its campaign.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s seat has been marked as potentially vulnerable in Somerset, while the Lib Dems have their eye on seats across Devon and Cornwall.

In terms of the key seats that require the smallest swing for Labour to win, the top 10 are:

  1. Burnley
  2. Leigh & Atherton
  3. High Peak
  4. Bangor Aberconwy
  5. Wolverhampton West
  6. Bury South
  7. Bury Noth
  8. Bolton North East
  9. Watford
  10. Chingford & Woodford Green

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