James O'Brien 10am - 1pm
"Election still up for grabs despite YouGov poll predicting big Conservative majority"
28 November 2019, 09:48
A leading commentator insisted that the Conservatives cannot afford to be complacent despite a major poll suggesting they will win a big majority.
The YouGov MRP poll was the only poll to predict a hung parliament during the 2017 election and released their data last night, showing the Conservatives getting a 68-seat majority.
But speaking to Nick Ferrari, Matt Chorley from The Times warned that there is a long way to go yet. He said: "The Conservatives will be pleased to be ahead. But there is still two weeks to go.
"Theresa May had this problem in 2017. If people think they're going to win by a massive majority, they may think 'I'm happy with that, but it means I can vote for my local Lib Dem or Labour candidate'.
"There's also the possibility that this galvanises the opponents of the Tories to think they really need to get out there and vote against them.
"So that's why Dominic Cummings wrote his blog warning people against complacency."
Regarding the Liberal Democrat showing in the poll, Matt pointed out: "They have a net gain of one. There's some churn in there, they win some seats, they lose some seats.
"But only making a net gain of one is pretty disappointing for a party whose leader Jo Swinson was saying only a few weeks ago that she could be Prime Minister."
The YouGov poll predicts the Brexit Party will fail to win a single seat and get just 3% of the vote. Asked whether it's over for Nigel Farage's party, Matt responded: "It would seem to be the case.
"If this is right at the Conservatives win a majority, Brexit will be done and Nigel Farage will claim some sort of victory.
"But to have overseen the collapse of two political parties - and still not become an MP - is not a great record on Nigel Farage's CV."