Leading Pollster Explains What's Likely To Happen In A December General Election
25 October 2019, 09:05
Pollster Lord Hayward told Nick Ferrari that Labour face significant losses in the North to the Brexit Party if they accept a General Election in December.
Boris Johnson revealed he is to table a motion to secure a General Election on Monday with a proposed date of 12th December.
Lord Hayward has been very successful in predicting previous elections and says that a Conservative majority is far from certain because of the way politics has changed since the last election.
Speaking to Nick Ferrari, he said: "The polls have been all over the place.
"The Labour Party are in a bad position. They keep losing council by-elections, they lost another one last night.
"But the Conservatives are not guaranteed. They could get a majority if there is a lead of about 13%. But equally, they could be way, way short of a majority because politics has changed in the last few years.
"Generally, a General Election is Labour v Conservative. Now you've got to look at the SNP, the Lib Dems, the Brexit Party. Even the Conservative Party are way down on what they polled in 2017."
Referring to the way the Brexit Party could affect the election, he revealed Labour as at risk as much as the Tories. He added: "They could be a serious player, particularly in Labour constituencies.
"I was speaking the other day to a Labour MP with a majority of 20,000 and he was asking if he was safe. Those MPs in the north and north-Midlands where the Tories are no threat whatsoever could easily face a very substantial Brexit threat. That's the place that the Brexit Party will be looking at.
"And in Scotland, where both Labour and the Conservatives are expected to lose seats to the SNP."