Russia not 'dumb enough' to launch full-scale Ukraine invasion - ex-ambassador

27 January 2022, 15:11

Russia is not 'dumb enough' to take invade Ukraine and take such a 'massive risk'

By Tim Dodd

Ex-British Ambassador to Russia Sir Roderic Lyne tells LBC Russia is not "dumb enough" to launch a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, as the high-stakes stand-off continues.

With Vladimir Putin massing some 100,000 troops at the border, Nato countries are looking to bolster defences, and the British Government is considering beefing up its contingent of military personnel in the region.

The Telegraph reports that Government sources say there are "very advanced discussions" about deploying more units from the army, Royal Navy and the RAF to Nato's easternmost countries, many of which are ex-Soviet or Warsaw Pact members.

About 1,000 are already deployed in Estonia and Poland as part of existing commitments designed to deter Russian aggression and show support for Nato countries.

Read more: Ukraine: UK in 'advanced' talks over sending hundreds of troops as Russian invasion threat looms

Sir Lyne told Shelagh Fogarty: "The Kremlin is trying to scare us, it's trying to scare the Ukrainians into making all sorts of concessions.

"So they're waving around a big stick, they're showing lots of pictures of tanks and soldiers.

"The military experts say that actually if they were going to do a full-scale invasion, they'd probably need even more force than they've lined up."

'I guarantee you, Putin will stop in his tracks and will not invade.'

Read more: 'What's the difference between a Russian invasion and incursion?' Nick grills minister

Sir Lyne continued: "The real point is, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be a massive undertaking for Russia and it would be a massive risk.

"Ukraine is bigger than France, it's got 42 million people. The Russians invaded Afghanistan and they never managed to get out, and they saw what happened to us when we tried to occupy Iraq.

"So I don't think that they're dumb enough to do that, I think it would be completely crazy on their part.

"But I think what they are going to do is keep this threat hanging over us, try to step up the pressure, and get us to abandon the independence of Ukraine - that's what they really want us to do."

Read more: Russia's sons won't come home if they invade Ukraine: Boris issues stark warning to Putin

More Shelagh Fogarty News

See more More Shelagh Fogarty News

The Princess of Wales says she edited the photograph that was released to mark Mother's Day.

The insistence that we see Kate is tantamount to stalking, writes Shelagh Fogarty

Caller tells Shelagh his solution to illegal immigration.

LBC caller tells Shelagh Fogarty that the Channel islands are the answer to 'illegal immigration'

'Rishi Sunak chooses to do the self interested party politics': Shelagh Fogarty reflects on Tories' immigration policies

'Rishi Sunak chooses to do the self-interested party politics': Shelagh Fogarty reflects on Tories' migration policies

Shelagh Fogarty

Former Treasury official outlines 'three immediate priorities' likely to be reflected in Autumn Statement

Shelagh Fogarty

Suella Braverman's hardline crime bill seems like she's ‘interviewing' for career at ‘pathetic’ news channels, says caller

Shelagh and caller Sam

Anti-Semitic chants and actions 'delegitimize' pro-Palestinian cause asserts this Shelagh Fogarty caller

Shelagh and Ricardo Dos Santos

'It's sickening': Ricardo Dos Santos speaks to Shelagh Fogarty as two officers sacked over stop and search


Rishi Sunak has 'failed monumentally' to 'humanise' both sides of the Israel-Hamas conflict says Israel expert

Shelagh and Callum

Twitter is a 'particularly dangerous' place to get information now says the Centre for Countering Digital Hate

Shelagh and caller Simon

LBC caller details 'disgusting anti-Semitic' act he witnessed, as hate crimes rise in fall out of Israel-Hamas war

Sister of missing Israeli woman

'We hope she's hiding somewhere': Sister of missing Israeli festival goer fears she is being held hostage by Hamas

Distraught caller on Israel-Gaza conflict.

'This is a war against Hamas!': Distraught caller wants Israel and Palestine to take down the 'enemy' together

Shelagh and Alicia Kearns

Head of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee expresses concern over Israeli 'siege of Gaza'

Shelagh Fogarty caller on facial recognition.

This caller lacks 'trust' in the government's handling of the AI facial recognition debate

Shelagh condemns PM's comments on 'dignity' of the elderly.

'He painted a picture of a Britain that the Conservatives meant to build...': Shelagh Fogarty condemns PM's suggestion that elderly have 'dignity'

Shelagh Fogarty on Jenrick

'We're full aren't we?': Shelagh questions Robert Jenrick's motive behind encouraging Brits to increase birth rate